Archive for January, 2012
Debt for Equity
Sunday, January 29th, 2012The world is awash in debt. Much of that debt, including sovereign debt, cannot be paid. Default is anticipated, with dire consequences as contagion engulfs the planet. As a business consultant, what would I advise? In the case of a private business, I would advise reorganization under bankruptcy laws. That would allow recognization of reality, [...]
Farmland Caution
Sunday, January 29th, 2012Farmland prices are starting to exhibit bubble-like symptoms. When sale prices exceed levels justified by farming economics, excuses are offered. For example, this parcel is strategically located. This parcel has exceptional productivity. This parcel complements a nearby operation. The underlying reasons appear less convincing. Farming is a cyclical business. Exceptional profit margins may be followed [...]
2012 Outlook
Monday, January 2nd, 2012First, I would like to evaluate my 2011 outlook, which I posted on January 1, 2011. I think my “Most Likely Scenario” was very close to what actually occurred during 2011 in the U.S. economy. My forecast for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates were close. However, my expectation that interest rates would be [...]